Reimagining Europe’s Heartland: The Intermarium as a Geopolitical Vision

The Strategic Heartland of Europe

Europe’s heartland, stretching between the Baltic and Black Seas, has long been a magnet for competing empires and rising nation-states. Its centrality in the Northern European Plain, what some geopoliticians call the “world island,” has historically made it both vulnerable and sought-after. Throughout centuries, the region’s people have struggled to maintain independence amid foreign domination and shifting alliances.

The idea of uniting these lands into a grand, federative entity has surfaced repeatedly in European history. Perhaps the most notable incarnation of this vision was the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth: a sprawling, polyethnic realm that, at its height, stabilized large swaths of Central and Eastern Europe. Centuries later, after periods of partition, upheaval, and rebirth, Polish statesmen and intellectuals would revisit this geopolitical union, what in the 20th century would be termed “The Intermarium.”

Historical Foundations and Ambitions

From the medieval Jagiellonian dynasty through the early modern Commonwealth to the statesmen of the 19th and 20th centuries, a guiding principle has often emerged: only by combining the region’s political, economic, and military resources could these smaller nations stand as equals among Europe’s great powers. Without unity, they risked becoming buffer zones—caught between German expansionism and Russian influence. The Intermarium was more than just nostalgia, it was a strategic hedge against foreign encroachment.

Across time, various leaders and thinkers have tried to revive or reshape the federation concept. In the aftermath of World War I, the notion of forging a bloc of Central and Eastern European states reemerged. Plans ranged from a federation of Poland, Lithuania, and Ukraine to broader alliances spanning from Finland to Greece. Yet, the promise often faltered under the weight of national self-interest, territorial disputes, and the lack of a strong external guarantor.

Geopolitics After the Cold War

The collapse of the Soviet Union reignited some interest in the Intermarium idea. Free from direct Soviet oversight, nations like Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia found themselves seeking new ways to safeguard their sovereignty. Yet, immediate opportunities after 1989 led many to look westward to NATO and the European Union. As a result, the Intermarium concept stayed in the background as more mature initiatives took precedence.

The Three Seas Initiative and New Possibilities

In today’s more fluid geopolitical environment, the Intermarium ideal reappears in initiatives like the Three Seas Initiative, which aims to boost connectivity and cooperation among Central and Eastern European countries. This effort, still in its infancy, focuses on infrastructure, energy corridors, and economic synergy. Whether it can evolve into something more profound—an enduring political or security framework—depends on regional trust, a common strategic vision, and external support.

Throughout history, attempts to form a powerful Central and Eastern European bloc have faced a critical challenge: without an external patron, the project often collapses. Today, eyes often turn to the United States, an outside power whose strategic interest in preventing a German-Russian nexus could align with building a robust, independent heartland alliance. Yet, America’s focus may shift elsewhere as global priorities change, raising questions about the durability of any such arrangement.

However after the election of Donald Trump, many opportunities have emerged that do put Poland, and the Baltic states in a great position to spearhead this kind of initiative. Much of it hinges around how much these countries spend on their defense budget with respect to GDP.

CEE (Central and Eastern Europe) Countries and their GDP Spend - 2025 Estimated

Western European Countries and their GDP Spend - 2024 Estimated

One criticism Donald Trump makes of NATO is that the United States pays the overwhelming share of the NATO defense budget, while most Western European countries enjoy American protection while failing to reach their 2% per GDP obligation. Why then, should the American taxpayer, underwrite European security, while the overwhelming majority of Western European countries maintain their bloated social welfare states? The time for Europe to wake up is now and in order to bring the US in as a potential backer of an Intermarium concept, we must present a clear return on investment back to the Americans.

"What I'm saying is a form of negotiation. Why should we guard these countries that have a lot of money and the United States was paying for most of NATO?"

Donald Trump

45th and 47th President of the United States

Beyond Borders and Ambitions

The Intermarium is not just a geopolitical daydream. At its core lies a radical idea: that states once torn apart by imperial ambitions can unite to shape their own destiny. Realizing this vision would demand compromise and a willingness to resolve old disputes. It would require states to elevate regional stability and shared prosperity over narrow national interest. In many ways, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe all share many common values, one of which is their particular repugnance towards the Russian state. Throughout centuries, Russia and its many permutations of empires have harassed Central and Eastern Europeans to no end. If there is one thing they can all agree on, it's that Russian influence has been a net negative for their nations. And now, with war waging in Ukraine, these historical sentiments have bubbled back up to the surface, forcing most Central and Eastern Europeans to reanalyze what they believe is important to Europe's future.

Many Central and Eastern European nations are also Slavic, sharing similar languages, traditions, and customs. This common ground would make establishing an Intermarium concept much easier than, for example, the European Union, which has evolved into more of a bureaucratic nightmare than the straightforward economic union it was originally intended to be.

A Vision Still in the Making

For all its historical roots and conceptual appeal, the Intermarium remains more aspiration than reality. Yet, as great-power tensions resurface and the continental order fluctuates, the concept endures as a reminder that Europe’s heartland need not be merely a zone of competition. It can be a platform for cooperation, showing that even after centuries of conflict, new alliances—and renewed self-determination—are still possible.

The time is ripe to revisit this concept as a buffer state against Russia’s imperialistic ambitions and the EU’s regulatory and ideological excesses. The United States can and must be a strategic partner in this endeavor, but it will only do so if the concept demonstrates a clear return on investment (ROI) for the Americans. One potential path to ROI could be the importation of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) as a hedge against Russian energy. Another could involve significant purchases of U.S. defense equipment, alongside investment stakes in local CEE defense companies. The Intermarium must showcase tangible value to the U.S., ensuring that the U.S. has a compelling incentive to further invest in the region as a strategic partner.

Dominik Andrzejczuk

Polish American Venture Capitalist