Ukraine’s War Reaches Critical Juncture Amid Uncertain Western Support

Ukraine’s war against Russia has reached a critical juncture with Donald Trump’s recent victory in the U.S. presidential election. This development has sent shockwaves across Europe and directly to Kyiv, raising uncertainty about whether America will continue funding Ukraine’s fight. If not, is Europe capable of filling the gap? As Ukraine soon enters its fourth year of war, these fundamental questions demand answers.

Ukraine’s Early Successes and Current Challenges

In February 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, almost everyone—including Putin himself—thought it would be a quick and brutal war. A few days to take Kyiv and then victory parades. But Ukraine didn’t fall. Against all odds, they not only held Kyiv after key victories in Irpin and Moshchun but also pushed back Russian forces all the way to Belarus.

By autumn 2022, the Ukrainian army managed to liberate the entirety of the Kharkiv region, giving breathing room to Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, and liberating half of the Kherson region. At the end of 2022, it looked like Ukraine could win the war the following year.

However, in 2023, Ukraine launched a summer offensive in the Zaporizhzhia region, hoping to reach Crimea. They were unable to break through heavily fortified and deep Russian defensive lines. The year 2024 has been characterized by a slow but relentless Russian advance in the Donetsk region, with the Ukrainian stronghold of Avdiivka falling in February after an intense four-month battle, opening the road for the Russians toward the Ukrainian logistics hub of Pokrovsk.

Withering U.S. Military Aid

Ukraine’s problems intensified on August 10, 2023, when President Biden turned to Congress with a supplemental appropriations bill to provide Ukraine with another $24 billion in military and economic aid. After passing four spending packages in 2022, this fifth package was blocked due to gridlock in Congress, with Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy being voted out.

In the following months, U.S. military aid for Ukraine dwindled and eventually ceased. It wasn’t until late April that Congress, under new Speaker Mike Johnson and with Donald Trump’s support, finally passed the Ukraine supplemental. The weapons started flowing again by the summer, but for nearly half a year, Ukraine was left without American military aid. This resulted in a shortage of artillery shells, forcing Ukrainian troops to ration under fire to only 2,000 rounds per day compared to an estimated 10,000 shells fired by Russia.

Europe’s Struggle to Fill the Gap

With growing uncertainty about future U.S. weapon deliveries under Trump, the question is whether the EU can step in and fill the gap. Despite making promises, Europe has struggled to deliver. In March 2023, the EU promised to deliver one million shells to Ukraine within a year but has delivered only half.

The problems in the EU and America are similar: the entire West lacks capacity for industrial production after decades of outsourcing heavy industries to Asia. Environmental concerns have led to the near cessation of production for key components like TNT and RDX, as well as gunpowder needed for artillery shells.

Restrictions on Ukraine’s Use of Western Weapons

Another challenge Ukraine faces is that its allies, out of fear of escalation with Russia, are forcing Kyiv to fight with one hand tied behind its back. Western allies have not allowed Ukraine to use Western-donated weapons as they would like. Ukraine could theoretically use American ATACMS ballistic missiles or British Storm Shadow cruise missiles to strike important military targets deep into Russian territory, but they are held back by their Western allies.

Germany, under Chancellor Olaf Scholz, has refused to provide Ukraine with Taurus cruise missiles that could strike targets 500 kilometers away. However, with upcoming elections, there is hope that a new German leadership might adopt a more supportive stance.

Diverging Views Within Europe

Sending aid to Ukraine is also complicated by some politicians in Europe who believe that Russian advances are not a strategic threat to the EU. These politicians are criticized for being detached from reality, living in a comfort bubble far from the front lines.

Countries near Russia, which understand the threat better due to historical experiences, send significantly more aid to Ukraine in terms of GDP than those further west. Denmark, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Finland, Sweden, and Poland all send around 1% to 2% of their GDP to Ukraine. In comparison, Germany and America send 0.4%, and France just 0.3%.

The Imperative for European Leadership

With growing uncertainty about continued U.S. support, politicians from NATO’s eastern flank are convinced that it’s up to the EU to step up and help Ukraine in its most difficult moment. They argue that it’s in Europe’s vital interest to contain Russian imperialism and help Ukraine survive. Russia must not win; Ukraine must not lose.

The Need for Long-Term Commitment

The war in Ukraine can still go either way. Much will depend on how much longer the Ukrainian people are willing to fight and whether the West is willing to make a long-term commitment. New production lines for artillery shells and other important weapon factories in the West will start coming online in 2026 and 2027. The question is whether there will be political will in the West to provide Ukraine with those weapons once they become available.

Europe has been hiding behind American military power since the end of the Cold War. If they want to help Ukraine long-term, the moment for military rearmament is now. Sooner or later, America will pivot to the Pacific to face the challenge posed by China. By then, Europe has to be ready to take care of its eastern border and any Russian or North Korean troops threatening to breach it.

Adam Starzynski

Journalist and Foreign Policy Analyst