All Eyes on The Vatican

A Moment of Historic Transition

The world watches as the Catholic Church prepares for one of its most significant historical transitions. Following the death of Pope Francis on 21 April 2025, the global faithful, political leaders, and observers from all corners of society are turning their attention toward the Vatican, where the College of Cardinals will soon gather for a secretive conclave to elect the next Pope.

The weight of this decision cannot be overstated. Whoever wears the white cassock next will shepherd over 1.3 billion Catholics and wield substantial moral influence.

Pope Francis was renowned to focus on social justice, poverty, the environment, as well as building bridges with other religions, especially Muslims. He also had a controversial impact on the LGBTQ+ community. Widely dubbed “The People’s Pope,” he was beloved by many for his seeming compassion and accessibility. But not everyone agreed with him. Traditional Catholics thought he went too far in trying to modernize the Church. Critics accused him of sowing confusion in the Church’s teachings, undermining centuries of moral clarity, and blurring doctrinal lines. Some saw his approach as a dilution of core Catholic truths, fearing it could lead to relativism and doctrinal inconsistency. While his global popularity arguably remained high, divisions within the Church grew sharper during his papacy.

Now the cardinals must discern: will the Holy Spirit guide them to continue Francis’s path, or toward someone more traditional?

The Leading Contenders: Who Are the Papabili?

The term papabile, used for cardinals considered strong contenders for the papacy, is once again gaining traction. In the corridors of the Vatican, several names are emerging as frontrunners, while others appear less likely to ascend to the Chair of Saint Peter.

Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines is widely regarded as a leading contender to succeed Pope Francis. Known for his warm, humble demeanor and strong commitment to helping the poor, Tagle has earned the nickname "Asian Francis." His approach resonates with Catholics seeking a more open, modern Church with progressive views, particularly in Asia and among younger followers. However, some conservative members of the Church worry that Tagle’s approach may be too lenient on doctrinal issues, potentially compromising traditional teachings.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin of Italy is the Vatican’s Secretary of State and a seasoned diplomat respected for his calm leadership and extensive experience, particularly in international relations. Many see him as a pragmatic choice who could help unify the various factions within the Church.

Cardinal Peter Turkson from Ghana has long been a respected advocate for global justice, poverty alleviation, and climate change. As the potential first Black pope in modern history, he brings significant international experience, having served in several key Vatican roles. Turkson is admired for his thoughtful speeches and moral clarity. However, some critics argue that his views have been inconsistent at times, fluctuating between liberal and conservative positions, which could hinder his support and make him seem less dependable to certain factions within the Church.

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi from Italy is renowned for his pastoral heart and work in peace-building, having mediated in international conflicts. He is beloved for his simple, compassionate style and is seen as a bridge between traditional values and modern thinking. While he is gaining attention, his relatively low global profile may hinder his chances in the conclave.

Cardinal Péter Erdő of Hungary is a leading intellectual and one of Europe’s foremost conservative figures within the Church. Renowned for his deep knowledge of theology and canon law, Erdő represents a traditional vision for the Church. Though he has long been considered a potential pope, his conservative stance may pose a challenge in a conclave that leans more toward modern reform.

Cardinal Robert Sarah from Guinea is the most traditional candidate for the papacy. He has been a staunch defender of the old Latin Mass and traditional Catholic teachings, earning deep admiration from conservative Catholics. However, his strong views have made him a divisive figure within the Church. At 79 years old, many believe his age and rigid stance will make it difficult for him to garner the support needed to become pope.

Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo from the Democratic Republic of Congo is a powerful advocate for poverty, justice, and environmental issues. He speaks out against corruption and defends the rights of the impoverished in Africa. Respected for his courage and firm stance on social issues, Ambongo is a rising figure. However, his relatively low international profile may limit his chances of securing the global support needed to be elected pope.

Currently, Tagle and Parolin are seen as the leading contenders. Tagle is favored by those who seek a more open, modern Church, while Parolin is regarded as a unifier who could ease tensions within the Church. Although respected, Turkson and Zuppi may struggle to gain sufficient support. Despite his popularity among conservative factions, Cardinal Sarah is unlikely to be elected, as many cardinals view his views as too extreme.

These are just a few of the many prominent papabile being considered, and the decision before the cardinals will be far from simple. Each contender brings a unique vision and set of strengths, making the path to consensus a complex one.

Inside the Conclave: An Ancient Process

When a pope passes away, the Catholic Church follows its ancient tradition of selecting a successor through a papal conclave. After Pope Francis's death, cardinals from around the world will gather in Rome to begin the process. According to Church rules, only cardinals under 80 may participate in the voting. Following a brief mourning period, the cardinals will enter the Sistine Chapel, where they will be sealed off from the outside world until a new pope is elected.

Inside the chapel, voting begins. Each cardinal inscribes the name of their chosen candidate on a ballot, and a two-thirds majority is required for election. Up to four rounds of voting are held each day but if a decision has not been reached, the voting continues over subsequent days. Once the ballots are cast, they are burned in a special stove. Black smoke indicates no decision has been made, while white smoke signals that a new pope has been chosen.

A Choice That Will Shape the Future

Once elected, the new pope is asked if he accepts the role. If he agrees, he chooses a papal name and dons the papal regalia and insignia. He then appears on the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica to present himself to the public. The Church’s senior cardinal announces “Habemus Papam” (“We have a pope”), and the new pope offers his first blessing to the world.

Regardless of who emerges through the white smoke, this decision will shape the moral and political direction of the world’s largest religious institution for decades to come. As history has shown, the conclave’s choice often surprises the world, but this time, the stakes may be higher than ever before.

Heike Claudia du Toit

South African Content Writer | Linguistics Honors Candidate

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