Biden Betrayed Poland on AI - Trump Must Set It Right
Poland’s ambition to become an AI powerhouse faces a major setback as the U.S. places it in a "Tier 2" category, limiting access to crucial technology. With Poland emerging as Europe’s tech leader, this move threatens to hinder its growth. Can the U.S. afford to hold back a key NATO ally in the global tech race?
Michael J. Hout
Jan 20, 2025 - 8:37 AM
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Poland’s AI Ambitions at Risk
In one of his final acts as president, Joe Biden imposed sweeping new restrictions on artificial intelligence (AI) chip exports—placing Poland in a second-tier category that limits its access to the cutting-edge technology and threatens to derail its rise as a European tech powerhouse.
The outgoing U.S. administration’s seemingly arbitrary decision to classify Poland as a “Tier 2” country, if unchanged, will significantly hamper Poland’s long-term ambitions in the AI space. The country had been wanting to become a major hub for AI development—so why was this decision made, and will President Trump fix it?
The controversial policy in question divides countries into three tiers, supposedly according to “security risks” and “strategic partnerships”:
Tier 1 (“key allies and partners”): Full access to advanced computer chips and other AI technology (18 countries—U.S., U.K., Germany, France, Canada, et al.)
Tier 2: Restricted access (Most countries—Poland, Czechia, Hungary, Baltic states, et al.)
Tier 3: Highly restricted access (China, Russia, Iran, other adversarial states)
Poland: A Rising Power the West Must Recognize
In being designated a Tier 2 country, Poland finds itself among most countries of the world—and that is precisely the problem. It is as if Biden himself made this decision, clinging to the geopolitical landscape of his formative years in the Senate. Are we really to believe Poland should not be considered a “key ally and partner” (Tier 1) of the United States in 2025? Was anyone involved in these decisions even aware of Poland’s status as the fastest-growing economy in Europe? To be blunt, many Poles feel insulted by this oversight (or snub)—and they are absolutely justified in feeling this way.
While countries such as Finland and Belgium enjoy exemption from any such restrictions, Poland must make do with import limits of about 50,000 advanced graphics processing units (GPUs). However, that number can be doubled if Poland meets certain requirements in clean energy, tech security, and other areas. At the moment, the number is not the issue at all; Poland currently uses less than 10% of this limit. But if a country wants to become a major part of the global AI future (and attract investment), this will pose a long-term challenge for them. It is simply inexplicable that the United States would be perfectly fine selling F-35s, Patriot missile systems, and Abrams tanks to Poland, yet feel the need to impose this restriction on AI-related technological exports to the same country. What are these “national security concerns” that make it okay to sell a country missiles, but not GPUs?
Biden and the EU Are Holding Warsaw Back
Trump, for his part, is likely to support the general principle behind this—there very well ought to be restrictions on AI-related exports. It is just very unclear why Poland, of all countries, was excluded by the United States. The two countries have been “key allies and partners” for more than three decades, in every sense of the term, going back to 1989. This is such an obvious fact at this point that it hardly even needs to be stated. Despite this relationship, an eleventh-hour plan by an outgoing, octogenarian president aims to ensure the continuance of a reality that is increasingly behind us—Western Europe’s economic superiority vis-à-vis Central and Eastern Europe.
Biden’s foreign policy has seemed guided by Cold War-era thinking rather than present-day realities. But Central and Eastern Europe are, today, a rising power bloc in their own right—not merely an extension of Western Europe. Poland, not Germany or France, is now the economic and military engine of Europe’s future. In fact, the percentage of Polish companies using AI has increased by 36% over the past year—the fastest pace of any EU country. While Brussels may appreciate this bifurcation for ideological reasons, it does not reflect the reality of Europe in 2025. Berlin and Paris can only maintain their present advantage through preferential regulatory treatment, and perhaps that is exactly what this decision reflects.
Poland’s AI Rise and the Strategic Costs of Holding It Back
This is hard to square by any objective metric, when Poland is thriving on what many consider to be an otherwise dying continent. In recent years, Poland has emerged as a European technological powerhouse, attracting major international investments and talent, including in the AI space. Tech giants such as Google, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Intel have all made significant investments in Poland’s burgeoning AI ecosystem. Warsaw has a booming startup scene, not only in AI, but in cybersecurity, cloud computing, and numerous other areas. This is all made possible by the presence of a great surplus of highly-skilled engineers, researchers, and a concentration of STEM talent that would make Silicon Valley blush. Poland is an AI leader in the making, if burdensome regulations do not prevent it from becoming one.
This isn’t just an economic issue for Poland—it is also a security concern. Artificial intelligence is absolutely critical to modern defense technology, which again, makes some restrictions understandable. But as one person put it, the restrictions are “overdesigned and uninformed,” regardless. A long-term defensive disadvantage for Poland, such as this, could have ramifications for other countries as well. As one of NATO’s most essential members, it is imperative that it remains a formidable force for good in an increasingly hostile geopolitical environment. What weakens Poland, in a sense, weakens its neighbors and allies as well. In choosing to hamstring Poland’s AI progress, Biden has indirectly begun to weaken NATO’s eastern flank, from a military technology standpoint.
So, this decision, making very little economic or military sense, was very likely political. Poland’s classification as a Tier 2 state was not based on merit or security risks but could well have something to do with its contentious relationship with the European Union (EU). Warsaw and Brussels have repeatedly clashed on a litany of matters revolving around sovereignty and cooperation. The EU’s power structure has long favored Germany and France over Central and Eastern Europe. The Biden Administration likely played into this favoritism in relegating Poland to its present, inferior Tier 2 status. For the Western left, adherence to their rules supersedes all else, even for a country as strategically vital to both NATO and the U.S., as Poland so clearly is.
Trump’s Chance to Correct Biden’s AI Betrayal of Poland
This brings us to Trump. The 45th and now 47th president of the United States has long been a strong advocate for Poland—much moreso than Democrats like Biden, who have more in common ideologically with EU politicians like Ursula von der Leyen or Thierry Breton than they do Polish president Andrzej Duda. Trump’s first presidency saw closer military, trade, and diplomatic ties between Poland and the United States, and it seems inconceivable that he would allow Biden’s classification of Poland as a second-rate ally to remain in place. The U.S. needs strong, self-sufficient allies like Poland, not needlessly weakened ones. If Trump wants to strengthen NATO, lifting these restrictions on one of its greatest economies and military forces should be a top priority.
Trump can and should leave Biden’s export limits in place, for the most part, but Poland (and perhaps a few other countries as well) must be reclassified as a Tier 1 partner. Furthermore, the U.S. and Poland ought to have a robust collaboration when it comes to AI, with partnerships between American and Polish companies. Let Poland achieve the economic and technological greatness it seems destined to achieve and ensure they have all the tools necessary to develop next-gen defensive technology—for the good of Europe and the Western world. Not doing so requires a better explanation than what has thus far been provided, which strikes many as arbitrary or politically-motivated. A correction is needed, here.
The incoming administration has a chance to correct this historic mistake by Biden (one of many, to be sure) and reinforce the U.S.-Poland partnership for decades to come. If Poland continues to be treated as a second-class player when it comes to artificial intelligence, it risks being left behind in the global tech race—one we should want countries like Poland to win and countries like China and Russia to lose. This is more than simply unfair—it is strategic malpractice on the part of the United States. Biden’s last-minute decision undermines one of America’s “key allies and partners” in not recognizing it as one. As such, President Trump must reverse this egregious error.
Lastly, this is not the sort of issue that should be “reviewed” over many months of endless bureaucratic red tape. Poland cannot afford to wait, and neither can the United States. Every month Poland remains shackled by Biden’s misguided policy is a month lost in the global tech race. Trump’s administration must act decisively to reclassify Poland as a Tier 1 AI partner and deepen AI-driven defensive cooperation between Washington and Warsaw, for a stronger Poland is a stronger NATO—and a safer America. This is also the correct step to take for a friend of the United States that has provided no justification for doubting its security, capability, or loyalty.
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Michael J. Hout
Editor-in-Chief of Liberty Affair