Dragon and Bear: Partners in Paranoia
Behind their handshake diplomacy lies a shaky alliance. China and Russia present a united front against the West but beneath the surface are deep historical grudges, power imbalances, and strategic rivalries that could soon tear their partnership apart. Dr. Henry Lyatsky explores why the Beijing-Moscow axis is destined to fracture, and what that means for the future of global power.
Dr. Henry Lyatsky
Jul 8, 2025 - 1:45 PM
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In the shifting sands of global geopolitics, alliances between great powers often conceal profound tensions beneath the surface. History shows us that countries with fundamentally incompatible values and competing ambitions will find common cause only temporarily - their cooperation, like an uneasy marriage, destined to unravel. Today’s alliance between China and Russia is no exception.
On the surface, Beijing and Moscow appear united against the West, aligned in opposition to liberal democracy and American-led global order. Yet a closer look reveals an alliance fraught with contradictions, historical grudges, and mutual suspicions that suggest this partnership is inherently fragile and heading toward an eventual split.
A Fraught History Cast in Shadows
The roots of China-Russia relations stretch back centuries, marked by conflict, conquest, and uneasy treaties. In the 1600s, Muscovite Russia expanded into Siberia, which led to wars and treaties with the Qing dynasty. By the 1800s, these conflicts resulted in China ceding vast territories along the Pacific coast, historically known as Outer Manchuria, to Russia. China has also historically claimed Outer Mongolia, which Russia helped keep as a separate country. These territorial losses remain a bitter point for Beijing.
Fast forward to the 20th century: revolutions transformed both nations into Communist states, yet ideological alignment failed to erase the deep-seated mistrust. The Soviet Union regarded China as a junior partner at best, suspicious of Mao Zedong’s nationalist ambitions. China, for its part, viewed Soviet “revisionism” and Khrushchev’s denunciation of Stalinism as betrayal. Border clashes in 1969 left soldiers dead and fears running high on both sides.
Throughout the Cold War, this rivalry simmered beneath a veneer of Communist solidarity. The “century of humiliation” narrative remains central to CCP propaganda, framing the loss of Outer Manchuria and Outer Mongolia to Russia as an ongoing wound. Russians, meanwhile, harbor their own racial and historical anxieties about the “Asiatic” threat from China, a fear passed down through folklore and school history.
Post-Communist Nationalisms in Unequal Partnership
After the Soviet Union’s collapse, both nations embraced a model of corporatist nationalism under authoritarian rule, but China quickly outpaced Russia economically and demographically. Today, China is the senior partner, boasting the world’s second-largest economy and a rapidly expanding global influence. Russia, weighed down by demographic decline, economic sanctions, and the costly war in Ukraine, is the weaker ally.
Despite their current public camaraderie, cracks are evident. Reports surface of Russian scientists being prosecuted on dubious charges of spying for China. Chinese migrants steadily flow into Russia’s Far East, a region facing depopulation and economic stagnation, fueling local fears of encroachment. Both powers compete for influence in Central Asia and Mongolia, regions historically caught between their spheres.
China’s diplomatic patience and long-term strategy mean it avoids overt territorial claims against Russia, for now. Its focus remains on Asia-Pacific dominance. But the demographic and economic trends point to a future where Beijing will press harder to assert control or influence over Russian borderlands, using economic leverage and soft power.
A Geopolitical Balancing Act in Eurasia
Countries caught between China and Russia - Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and others in Central Asia - seek to balance carefully, wary of domination by either giant. They cultivate ties with other global powers to maintain independence. As Chinese investment floods these regions, Russia’s relative weakness grows more apparent.
This delicate balance may not last. Russia’s internal challenges, persistent regionalism in the North Caucasus, a shrinking and aging population, and economic woes, diminish its ability to act as a counterweight. Meanwhile, China’s Belt and Road Initiative and strategic diplomacy steadily redraw the map of influence.
History reminds us that the current peace between Beijing and Moscow is no guarantee of future harmony. The 1969 border war nearly escalated to nuclear conflict. Both sides once entertained plans for devastating strikes, and the legacy of those fears lingers in military doctrine and public memory.
While neither side currently desires open war, localized clashes or incidents could spark tensions, especially if China’s growing presence in the Russian Far East and Central Asia is seen as aggressive encroachment. Russia’s weakening hand means it will increasingly have to acquiesce or confront impossible choices.
What Lies Ahead?
Will China and Russia’s alliance endure? The answer is complicated. On one hand, they share authoritarian governance models and a common interest in undermining Western liberalism. This ideological affinity, combined with shared strategic objectives, especially countering the U.S. and NATO, provides a basis for cooperation.
But these shared interests mask deeper realities: the historical wounds, the imbalance of power, and competing ambitions. Russia’s fading strength and China’s ascendancy suggest that Beijing will soon demand more from Moscow, pushing for greater concessions and influence.
Russia is certain to reject overt subjugation. Because its ability to resist is eroding fast, it might be forced into a balancing act between China and the West. The demographic decline, economic hardship, and political repression under Vladimir Putin’s regime leave little room for maneuver. China’s patient long game could see it become the dominant power not just in Asia-Pacific, but across Eurasia.
An eventual China-Russia split would reverberate globally. For the West, a diminished Russia less able to challenge NATO and Europe could ease pressures on multiple fronts. However, a more assertive China, freed from the need to accommodate a partner, might accelerate moves on Taiwan and in the South China Sea, raising new security dilemmas.
For countries in Central Asia and beyond, the power transition will reshape alliances and economic dependencies. The battle for influence between two authoritarian giants will complicate efforts to build democratic governance and regional stability.
An Alliance of Convenience, Not Destiny
The China-Russia partnership is best understood as a marriage of convenience between two powers whose values, histories, and futures are fundamentally incompatible. Just as Stalin and Hitler found it convenient to become allies before falling out, and Mao’s China once aligned with Moscow before breaking away, today’s alliance is a temporary alignment born of shared opposition rather than true partnership.
The cracks are already visible. The coming decade will reveal whether this fragile alliance can hold or whether history will repeat itself with a new China-Russia split, one that reshapes global geopolitics and redefines the balance of power in Eurasia.
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Dr. Henry Lyatsky
Geological Consultant | Conservative Campaigner