Empowering Iranians, Weakening the Regime

Iran’s Strategy: Repression at Home, Chaos Abroad

Iran is once again rocked by protests, sparked by the high cost of living, strict societal controls, campus violence, and a lack of freedoms. To make matters worse, the regime has ramped up restrictions on VPNs, further tightening its grip on digital communication, leaving Iranians vulnerable to surveillance and unable to organize.

This is just the latest in a decades-long strategy by the Islamic Republic to maintain power. At home, it stokes fear and crisis, while abroad, it drags the U.S. and Israel into regional conflicts. Tehran has built a network of militias in Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen to target U.S. forces and allies. Internally, recent blackouts and crackdowns on digital communications reflect the regime's playbook, manufacturing and exploiting crises to maintain control.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the regime's enforcer, benefited from a 20% boost to Iran's defense budget in 2024, fueled by rising oil revenues. But instead of alleviating poverty - over 60% of Iranians live below the poverty line - the funds bolster missile development, proxy forces, and internal repression.

Some in Washington still believe that striking a deal with Tehran will allow the U.S. to gracefully exit the Middle East. They argue that dialogue could reduce conflict. This is a dangerous misunderstanding. The regime thrives on external and internal crises. Appeasement will never reduce American involvement because Tehran’s tactics - proxy warfare, nuclear brinkmanship, hostage diplomacy, and transnational repression - are not temporary strategies. They are the very core of the regime.

Rethinking “Regime Change”

For many, “regime change” conjures images of U.S. military intervention and endless war. But in Iran, change doesn’t, and shouldn’t, require American boots on the ground. The real drivers of change are the Iranian people themselves. From the Green Movement in 2009 to the Woman, Life, Freedom protests after Mahsa Amini’s death, Iranians have repeatedly shown their willingness to challenge the regime.

Supporting them is not only more ethical but also more effective than military intervention. Lasting democratic change comes from within, not through foreign-imposed nation-building. A smarter approach avoids costly U.S. entanglements while strategically reducing America’s long-term military footprint in the region.

So how can the U.S. and its allies empower Iranians without direct intervention? The key lies in targeted, high-impact measures: breaking the regime’s grip on communication, cutting off its financial lifelines, and undermining its control over security forces. These efforts weaken the regime’s foundation while ensuring any transition is organic and sustainable. Instead of another military quagmire, Washington should focus on the Islamic Republic’s core vulnerabilities - its reliance on censorship, oil revenues, and coerced loyalty among security forces - to support real, lasting change.

Tools for Empowerment

Why a Democratic Iran Matters

A democratic Iran would not funnel billions to Hamas, Hezbollah, or the Houthis, supply missiles to Russia, or pursue nuclear weapons. Instead, it would focus on domestic welfare and regional stability. This shift would significantly reduce America’s security burdens - less need for U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf, fewer missile threats, and a diminished risk of conflict.

While the road to democracy is neither quick nor guaranteed, keeping the regime afloat with diplomatic “deals” only ensures endless instability and U.S. entanglement. As ongoing protests, power outages, and crackdowns show, Tehran’s instability isn’t a temporary crisis - it’s the norm.

Exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi has laid out a structured plan for transition, calling for a broad-based transitional council to establish secular democracy and hold the regime accountable. While Iranian opposition factions debate his role, his initiative is the most visible effort to unite monarchists, republicans, labor activists, ethnic minorities, and others from across the political spectrum against the regime.

Momentum for change exists, even if fragmented. With growing alignment around Pahlavi and other pro-democracy forces, the idea that appeasement leads to stability is increasingly untenable. A free Iran would not only liberate its people but also reduce the need for perpetual U.S. military engagement in a region destabilized by Tehran’s policies.

The Case for Internal Regime Change in Iran

Reducing U.S. involvement in the Middle East won’t come from striking deals with a regime that thrives on crisis, repression, and conflict. The latest protests, arrests, and internet blackouts expose Tehran’s desperation to control its people and silence dissent.

The only real way to weaken the regime’s grip is by empowering everyday Iranians. Breaking its monopoly on information and fear isn’t just a moral duty, it’s the smartest strategy for limiting America’s long-term entanglements in the region.

Real regime change isn’t about foreign intervention; it’s about Iranians reclaiming their future with strategic U.S. support. Washington must stop legitimizing Tehran as a partner and instead take decisive steps to undermine its rule. An Iran freed from its repressive rulers would do more than restore basic rights: it would also transform the region's power dynamics, dismantle the regime's terror networks, and spare the U.S. further costly entanglements.

Supporting Iranian freedom isn’t just the right thing to do. It’s the only path to real, lasting stability.

Andrew Ghalili

Senior Policy Analyst | National Union for Democracy in Iran