Ex-IDF Officer Warns: The Real War Is Still Coming

V24 presents an in-depth series covering the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict. This comprehensive series features on-the-ground interviews, bringing firsthand insights from a diverse range of voices, including politicians, professors, journalists, experts and influencers. Our guest today: Jonathan Conricus.

Inside the Prolonged War with Hamas

In the months following the October 7 massacre, Jonathan Conricus became one of the most prominent voices explaining Israel’s perspective to the world. Former spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and now a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) in Washington D.C., Conricus brings a rare combination of battlefield experience and global advocacy to the complex Israeli-Hamas conflict.

Born in Jerusalem and raised partly in Malmö, Sweden, Conricus returned to Israel at 13 and served 24 years in the IDF. Rising to lieutenant colonel, his roles ranged from combat commander in Lebanon and Gaza, military diplomat, foreign relations expert, to becoming the IDF’s international spokesperson — notably, the first Israeli officer seconded to the United Nations as a strategic advisor to peacekeeping forces.

Hamas’s Underground Advantage

Despite its relatively small size, estimated at around 40,000 fighters, Hamas has maintained a resilient and prolonged resistance in Gaza, largely thanks to two critical advantages: the urban terrain and a vast underground tunnel network.

"Over the last decade, Hamas has constructed a vast underground infrastructure beneath Gaza, once one of the most densely populated areas in the world,” Conricus explains. “This tunnel network has proven extremely challenging and time-consuming for Israel to locate and dismantle.”

Israel’s military strategy reflects this complexity. Rather than a rapid, forceful invasion, the IDF has adopted a deliberate and cautious approach focused on minimizing civilian casualties and avoiding heavy collateral damage. This means announcing operations in advance and allowing civilian evacuations, giving Hamas time to prepare defenses and making progress slower than many expect.

The Geopolitical Chessboard

The conflict in Gaza is not fought in isolation. It plays out on a global stage, shaped heavily by international actors.

Conricus highlights the delicate balance Israel must maintain under intense diplomatic scrutiny, especially from the United States and Egypt. Cities like Rafah, crucial supply and smuggling hubs for Hamas, became focal points for global attention. “Israel could have taken a more violent approach,” Conricus says, “but international constraints and humanitarian concerns have necessitated a more measured strategy.”

Egypt’s role is particularly nuanced. Although officially neutral, Egypt opposes the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas’ ideological parent, and seeks to contain instability within Gaza to protect its own borders. Through its mediation in hostage negotiations and ceasefire efforts, Egypt has reasserted its geopolitical relevance.

The United States remains Israel’s closest ally and the linchpin of its military and diplomatic support. “Our relationship is a two-way street,” Conricus notes. “Israel relies heavily on US military aid and diplomatic backing, while America values Israel as a key partner in a turbulent region.”

Rooted in shared Judeo-Christian values and mutual interests, the partnership has withstood occasional disagreements behind closed doors. Looking forward, Conricus is hopeful about Washington’s role in expanding regional alliances — potentially including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, and Morocco — building on the Abraham Accords to promote stability and progress.

The Iranian Threat

While Hamas poses an immediate challenge, Conricus warns that the bigger threat lies with Iran. The regime’s explicit goal to eliminate Israel by 2040 and its rapidly advancing nuclear program present a dire risk not only to Israel but to Europe and the wider West.

“Iran’s ambitions don’t stop at Israel,” he says gravely. “They threaten the security of Europe and the entire free world.”

Following recent Iranian-backed attacks on Israel involving drones, rockets, and ballistic missiles, Conricus stresses that Israel may have to act alone to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons if diplomacy and deterrence fail. Israeli military strikes in October 2024 marked a psychological turning point, demonstrating Israel’s readiness to confront Iran directly.

Conricus argues that dismantling Iran’s nuclear threat requires weakening the regime itself. The Iranian regime diverts resources to terrorism and nuclear ambitions rather than the welfare of its own people, he explains.

He calls for robust Western support for Iranian civil society through expanded sanctions, military deterrence, and the promotion of uncensored information access to empower reform-minded Iranians. Though internal repression is severe, growing protests and opposition inside Iran suggest a population yearning for change.

Glimmers of Hope Amidst Challenges

Despite the ongoing war and regional tensions, Conricus sees opportunities for long-term peace. The Abraham Accords, which have already brought historic normalization between Israel and several Arab states, could expand to form a broader regional coalition for security and cooperation.

However, as long as extremist regimes like Iran remain in power, true peace will be elusive, he cautions. Addressing the root causes of instability is essential to ushering in a new era of prosperity and stability.

Israel’s fight extends beyond its borders. “We are defending ourselves in our ancestral homeland,” Conricus states, “but we face an enemy that could soon shift its focus westward, threatening Europe and the West.”

The war in Gaza, therefore, is not just a regional conflict — it’s a warning and a call to action for the free world to recognize the broader stakes.

Adam Starzynski

Journalist | Foreign Policy Analyst

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