Poland Downs Russian Drones
Overnight, Polish F-16s roared into the night sky alongside other NATO aircraft. They intercepted Russian suicide drones in NATO’s first direct combat engagement against Russian forces since the alliance’s founding. They ultimately downed multiple Russian drones that violated Polish airspace in what Prime Minister Donald Tusk called an “unprecedented” incursion.
Given the success of taking the drones down, early reports appear that the damage was minimal. A residential building was struck in the village of Wyryki, with no injuries sustained. Since then, Tusk has declared that the country faces its gravest threat since World War II and moved to invoke Article IV of the NATO charter, triggering consultations between members when any state believes its security is threatened.
Realistically, this incursion warrants Article V: the mutual defense clause stating that an attack on one is an attack on all. This was a coordinated, armed attack inside of NATO borders that came less than a week after Polish President Nawrocki met with President Trump in Washington. That is not a coincidence. It's an act of aggression requiring a collective defense.
They’re Not Hiding Their Ambitions
As Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha observed in the attack’s aftermath, “Putin just keeps escalating, expanding his war, and testing the West. The longer he faces no strength in response, the more aggressive he gets.” Every unanswered provocation invites further acts of aggression, as was put on clear display with the West’s tepid response to the invasion of Crimea back in 2014, which only served to embolden Putin.
The Russian president has never hidden his imperial ambitions, publicly lamenting the Soviet Union’s collapse as the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.” His deputy, Dmitry Medvedev goes further, calling Georgia and Kazakhstan “artificial states” while demanding that Russia must “return our Russian lands.”
When Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov showed up to the Alaska summit wearing a “CCCP/USSR” sweatshirt, the message was clear: Moscow wants to reconstruct the Soviet empire, one neighbor at a time.
They're not hiding their ambitions, and we would be foolish not to listen. In November 2023, Medvedev issued an 8,000-word screed calling Poland a "dangerous enemy" and should be treated accordingly: "History has delivered a merciless verdict to the insolent Poles more than once: no matter how ambitious the revanchist plans are, their defeat can lead to the death of the entire Polish statehood. Will we then mourn the collapse of modern Polish statehood? There is no need to deceive. There can only be one answer: definitely not!"
Poland Carries Its Weight
While isolationists and interventionists across the country have lamented Western Europe’s pitiful military spending and over-reliance on Washington for decades, Poland has gone a completely different route. Warsaw has never lost the clarity of mind that centuries of invasion, annexation, and subjugation have taught it: they recognize that strength is the only deterrent against expansionist tyrants like Vladimir Putin.
Poland has long presided over robust military spending, which has yielded real results. While it regularly met the alliance’s 2% of GDP goals, the invasion of Ukraine back in 2022 sent the country into overdrive to fortify itself against a resurgent threat: they raised spending to at least 3% in 2023, then to 4.7%, and it was recently reported that by 2026 they will be spending 5% on defense, the highest proportion in NATO.
Compare this to the military readiness disasters unfolding in Western Europe. In 2015, German soldiers carried broomsticks to simulate machine guns during NATO’s rapid response exercises for lack of actual firearms, under the tenure of then-Minister of Defense Ursula von der Leyen. A few years later, Germany had zero operational submarines - all of them were simultaneously out of commission. Even today, despite Prime Minister Schutz’ multi-year overhauls, Germany’s army battle readiness is reportedly lower than when Russia invaded Ukraine.
The UK fares little better. Britain currently has only 25 operational tanks—just 30% of what’s needed to meet their target. War simulations in 2022 showed the country would exhaust its ammunition stocks in just eight days in a high-intensity conflict. Even across the channel in France, reports show that their forces would “start to have real difficulties” after just two weeks of sustained conflict, earlier on some of their more sophisticated equipment.
Meanwhile, Poland pulls its weight and has become our closest military partner on the continent. Warsaw is purchasing 1,000 K2 Black Panther tanks from South Korea alone, on top of their already robust supply. This is in addition to 366 more M1 Abrams tanks from the United States and is in the process of acquiring 486 HIMAR rocket systems, making it one of the world’s largest operators. It is little wonder they now have the largest active duty military force in the EU, trailing behind only the United States and Turkey in NATO.
Funding Our Own Destruction
Reports of over a dozen drones flooding into Polish airspace alarmed many, not from fears of widespread damage; they were easily shot down with no casualties. No. What this incursion represents is far worse. This was a test of how the alliance will respond, how unified we are, and to what extent we are willing to sacrifice by cutting off Russia.
These were paid for in part with European money. The uncomfortable truth that NATO won't discuss is that Europe still pays Russia €21.9 billion annually for energy despite sanctions. Germany's Russian LNG imports alone jumped 500% to €7.32 billion through intermediaries in 2024. Over 550 Western companies maintain Russian operations, including PepsiCo opening a new factory with the capacity to produce 60,000 tons annually last year.
Drones are becoming increasingly central to Russia’s war strategy, having surged over 1,300% between July 2024 to 2025. Today wasn't the first incursion, either: previous ones saw drones penetrate 14 kilometers inside Romania, crash in Latvia with explosives on board, and violate both Finnish and Swedish airspace throughout 2024.
The Ghost of Crimea Returns
History shows us what happens when aggressive powers probe for weakness and find it. It is highly unlikely that Putin would have ever attempted an invasion of the entire Ukrainian state with the openly stated goal of “decapitating” its government had it not been for the extremely weak response he faced from the West after annexing Crimea back in 2014.
If Russian drones can strike into NATO territory without triggering collective defense, what message does that send? Putin is testing whether the West has the stomach to defend itself: first at the peripheries, then further inside. Recent events indicate that he is betting that 75 years of collective security can be undone piecemeal through incremental violations that go unanswered.
Meanwhile, Putin has been socializing with international heads of state to refute the characterization that he has been “isolated.” The West has to be forceful in pushing back on states that are willing to cooperate with Russia given these events, not pretend that all is okay.
Margaret Thatcher understood this dynamic when she warned in 1980: “The Soviet Union cannot conduct wars by proxy… foment trouble in the Middle East and Caribbean, invade neighboring countries and still expect to conduct business as usual."
She was absolutely right, and this logic carries through today in its successor state. Putin has shown us exactly who he is, someone who will take whatever we allow. Poland has already been pulling its weight robustly: now, the rest of the alliance must decide whether to match Warsaw’s courage with collective action or confirm Putin’s bet that the alliance died over a Polish village on a September night.
Kyle Moran
Political Commentator
