A Divided Right
Support for Tommy Robinson has surged visibly, as seen in the massive march through central London on Saturday, 13th September. Estimates of attendance reached into the millions, demonstrating a scale of support impossible to ignore. Robinson now enjoys the support of Elon Musk, whose extraordinary online reach amplifies his message, and he has received an official invitation from Israel, a country whose survival he has long championed.
Robinson can no longer be dismissed as a “lout,” “hooligan,” or even a “far-right racist” and “crook,” labels his detractors have repeatedly applied. He has entered the political mainstream, and his supporters have formed a party: AdvanceUK.
At the next General Election, a crucial risk emerges. If both Advance and Reform field candidates in the same constituencies, the vote will split, virtually guaranteeing defeat against Labour, which runs only one candidate per seat and benefits from a unified base, including a four-million-strong Muslim bloc.
Britain’s first-past-the-post system punishes any side that runs two or more candidates in the same constituency, while rewarding the side that presents just one candidate, allowing supporters’ votes to converge. Current opinion polls show Reform polling over 30%, more than any other party, with Labour and the Conservatives reduced to minor players. This surge may reflect voter disgust with the legacy parties, captured under the “None of the above” sentiment. As long as a party fields only one candidate per constituency, it can convert concentrated support into an overall victory, but running two similar candidates risks defeat for both.
Lessons from History
Last year, the “centre-right” vote, split between the Conservatives and Reform, totaled 38% but secured only 20% of the seats. Reform, with four million votes, won a mere five seats. Labour, running a single candidate per constituency, won only 34% of the votes overall but captured 63% of the seats, gaining an unprecedented governing majority.
History reinforces this lesson. In 2019, Farage withdrew 300 candidates, giving Boris Johnson’s Conservatives a free run in many constituencies, resulting in an 80-seat majority. That victory was squandered, but the principle remains clear: unity is critical.
Need for Unity
The difference between Reform and Advance today lies in their focus. Both oppose uncontrolled immigration, but Advance emphasizes the dangers associated with certain Muslim doctrines, particularly the exploitation of vulnerable young girls - picked up, groomed, drugged, raped, and prostituted by gangs of mostly Pakistani Muslim men operating in around 50 cities over decades. Local authorities and police often failed to act for fear of being labeled “racist” and upsetting “community relations.” Reform tends to overlook the specific religious roots of these dangers. Farage has warned that Robinson “seems to want to take on the whole of Islam,” suggesting such a focus could be electorally risky. Yet street surveys, such as those conducted on 13th September, show many, if not most, marchers consider Islam the UK’s greatest problem.
Government appointments exacerbate concerns. Militant, practising Muslims now hold key positions in the Home Office overseeing security policy, law enforcement and border control. When Shabana Mahmood, now Home Secretary, was appointed to her previous post as Lord Chancellor and Justice Secretary, she took her oath of office on the Qur’an and quoted lines from it in her inaugural speech, describing it as “the fundamental articulation of how we, as Muslims, view justice.” She pledged to “fight for justice,” but did not clarify whether she referred to Islamic Sharia justice, as her faith might oblige, or to the traditional British conception of justice that the office of Lord Chancellor demands. Education is also impacted. Ofsted is now chaired by an Islamic "Mufti" (i.e. priest) shaping educational standards and impressionable young minds in UK schools. These nominations raise clear questions about unavoidable conflicts of interest between religious and official duties, issues that Reform MPs have not addressed.
Neither Reform nor Advance appears capable of eclipsing the other in an election. If both run candidates, the vote for common sense and Britain’s traditional values will split, handing victory to Labour once again. A second Starmer term may render the damage to the country irreversible. Nigel needs to reach out to Tommy, heal the divide and present a united front, agreeing to field just one candidate in each constituency.
William Dick
William Dick | Political and Legal Journalist
