Trump’s Ultimate Test: Can Iran Be Tamed?

Forty-Six Years of the Islamic Republic

This month marks 46 years since the Islamic Revolution and the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran, a regime built on an ideology that is fundamentally anti-American and relentlessly seeks the eradication of the state of Israel.

Throughout its existence, this identity has remained largely unchallenged, except during President Donald Trump’s first term, when his "Maximum Pressure" policy imposed severe sanctions, economically and diplomatically isolating the regime like never before.

The Trump Administration's Approach to Iran

Last week, President Trump reinstated “Maximum Pressure” in his second term while signaling a willingness to negotiate with Tehran. Though such talks will inevitably center on Iran’s nuclear threat, the regime’s deeply ingrained anti-American and antisemitic ideology remains the greatest obstacle to any meaningful agreement or to achieving Trump’s broader goal of removing the Islamic Republic as the chief threat to lasting peace in the Middle East.

For negotiations to have real impact, the U.S. must confront this ideology head-on. As long as the Islamic Republic’s fundamental hostility toward America and its commitment to Israel’s destruction go unchallenged, any new nuclear deal risks repeating the failures of the disastrous 2015 agreement under President Obama.

While the Obama nuclear deal temporarily curbed Tehran’s nuclear program, the billions in sanctions relief provided by President Obama to Ayatollah ultimately fueled Iranian-backed terror groups, including Hamas and Hezbollah, and expanded Iran’s ballistic missile program. These U.S. dollars inadvertently funded the October 7 terrorist attacks and supplied the very missiles the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched at Israel in April and October last year.

To prevent history from repeating itself, President Trump must reject any narrow nuclear deal. Instead, he should pursue a far more consequential goal: making the dismantling of the Iranian regime’s anti-American and antisemitic ideology a precondition for any agreement. Only such an approach would truly put “America First.”

The Illusion of Moderation in Tehran

Successive U.S. administrations have struggled to confront the Islamic Republic because they have failed to reckon with its core identity. This should come as no surprise. Over the past 45 years, the Islamic Republic has remained the world’s most anti-American and antisemitic regime. Founded in 1979 on the pillars of “Death to America” and the destruction of Israel, these remain Tehran’s official state policies to this day. From the U.S. hostage crisis four decades ago to the October 7 terrorist attacks in 2023, these slogans have never been empty rhetoric.

For decades, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his ideological enforcers in the IRGC have made clear that their anti-Americanism and antisemitism are non-negotiable. Even when President Obama handed the regime billions in sanctions relief - including pallets of cash - as part of the 2015 nuclear deal, Tehran did not moderate its hostility. Instead, it escalated its aggression with renewed speed.

Yet once again, proponents of engagement claim Tehran has “turned a fresh page” under its newly elected so-called "moderate" president, Masoud Pezeshkian. But we’ve seen this “hardliner vs. reformist” charade before. Presidents Rafsanjani, Khatami, and Rouhani were all branded “moderates” and “pragmatists,” yet under their tenure, the regime’s domestic repression and regional aggression only intensified.

The reality is clear: there is no moderate path for a regime built on violent revolution and unwavering hostility to the U.S. and Israel.

The Iranian regime’s propagandists are now attempting to court President Trump, hoping to lure him into negotiations. But this entire strategy is a ploy to buy time until the expiration of the “snapback mechanism” in October 2025. A provision of Obama’s 2015 nuclear deal, the snapback mechanism allows Western powers to reimpose UN sanctions on Iran. Once it expires, Tehran will face far fewer obstacles in advancing its nuclear weapons program and acquiring a bomb.

The Iranians are therefore engaging in “talks for the sake of talks,” aiming to stall until they are free of this constraint. Even if the regime briefly feigns rapprochement out of fear of Trump, the Ayatollah and the IRGC will inevitably revert to their true anti-American and antisemitic agenda - waiting out the clock until a more lenient U.S. administration takes power.

Confronting Iran’s Ideological Threat

As long as the Iranian regime clings to its anti-American and antisemitic ideology, the threat it poses - to both the region and the United States - will persist, regardless of any nuclear deal. This is precisely what President Trump must focus on changing.

Before any negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program or other challenges posed by the Ayatollah’s regime, Trump must first demand a fundamental shift in its ideological identity. The Trump administration should not fall into the same trap as Obama and Biden, who naively assumed Tehran would “moderate” its hostility in exchange for billions of dollars.

To test whether the regime is truly “pragmatic,” as its propagandists claim, President Trump should set two clear preconditions for talks: reopening the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and formally recognizing Israel’s right to exist (even without restoring diplomatic relations).

If Khamenei agrees to these terms, it would mark the first time the Islamic Republic has abandoned the very ideology that has defined it since 1979. Anything short of this would expose “moderation” as nothing more than a tactical ruse.

A Firm Stand on Iran’s Future

Trump should set a firm deadline, making it clear to Khamenei that he has only a few months to decide: Will the Islamic Republic transform into a normal nation-state, or will it remain a revolutionary pariah?

If Khamenei rejects these preconditions, which is the most likely scenario, Trump must not waste time on futile “talks for talks,” which is exactly what Tehran wants.

Instead, if the Ayatollah refuses to abandon the regime’s “Death to America” and the goal of wiping Israel off the map, Trump must take decisive action. His administration should immediately push European allies to activate the snapback mechanism, reinstating UN sanctions, and follow this with targeted military strikes on IRGC-controlled nuclear and military sites. At the same time, the U.S. should offer support to the Iranian people, who have repeatedly demonstrated their pro-American and even pro-Israel sentiments, something even regime-aligned academics in Iran have admitted.

President Trump has been clear: under his leadership, the U.S. will put America First. And when it comes to Iran, that must mean ending “Death to America” for good.

Saeid Golkar is an associate professor of political science at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga and a senior advisor at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI).

Kasra Aarabi is director of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) research at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI). He specializes in Iranian military and security affairs and Shi’a extremism.