A Region on the Move
The Horn of Africa and surrounding East African countries are home to one of the world’s largest displaced populations. By mid-2025, the region hosts approximately 5.4 million refugees and asylum-seekers, alongside nearly 18.8 million internally displaced persons. Globally, more than 123 million people have been forcibly displaced, nearly double the number a decade ago. This makes the Horn of Africa one of the largest concentrations of forced displacement worldwide.
The causes of displacement are complex and overlapping. Protracted conflicts in South Sudan, Somalia, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea continue to force millions from their homes. By late 2024, nearly 2.3 million South Sudanese refugees were living in neighboring countries, often in overcrowded camps under dire conditions. Environmental crises exacerbate these pressures: the Horn of Africa drought between 2020 and 2023 intensified food insecurity and economic collapse, particularly in Somalia, where agricultural livelihoods were destroyed and famine risk heightened. Fragile governance, youth unemployment, and inadequate public services further drive migration, leaving people with few options but to flee.
Are Legal Promises Enough?
International law provides a framework for refugee protection. Under the 1951 Refugee Convention and its 1967 Protocol, refugees are entitled to protection from forced return (non-refoulement), access to basic services, documentation, freedom of movement, and the right to work. The 2018 Global Compact on Refugees builds on these protections, emphasizing responsibility-sharing and encouraging host countries to provide education, employment, and long-term integration opportunities.
Yet across the Horn of Africa, implementation is inconsistent. Uganda has been widely recognized as a progressive host country, granting refugees access to land, freedom of movement, and public services, thereby promoting self-reliance. However, in 2025, Uganda announced it would stop granting refugee status to new arrivals from Eritrea, Somalia, and Ethiopia due to declining donor support and budgetary pressures. Kenya continues to confine most refugees to camps such as Dadaab, Kakuma, and Hagadera, severely restricting mobility and opportunities for integration. Ethiopia has adopted a hybrid approach, issuing refugees identification cards that allow access to banking, education, and employment. While promising, these measures remain unevenly applied across regions, and many refugees still face barriers to full participation in society.
Turning Crisis Into Opportunity
Even when legal protections exist, refugees face profound humanitarian challenges. Overcrowding, limited clean water, inadequate sanitation, and insufficient healthcare are endemic in camps like Hagadera. Disease outbreaks, including cholera and measles, remain a recurring threat.
Economic marginalization is severe: refugees in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda are 33 percentage points more likely to live in poverty than host populations, according to a 2024 Joint Data Center report. Women and girls face additional vulnerabilities, including barriers to education, underemployment, and exposure to gender-based violence. Healthcare access also varies: while 91% of refugees in Ethiopian camps report receiving treatment when needed, only 71% of those living outside camps do.
Chronic underfunding compounds these hardships. UNHCR operations in the region frequently receive less than 50% of the resources needed to provide adequate services. In 2025, the UN warned that Uganda’s refugee program could run out of funding entirely, threatening food assistance, education, and protection. Political fatigue among host governments has also led to stricter asylum policies, renewed debates around repatriation, and a shrinking tolerance for long-term integration.
There are ways to manage displacement that strengthen host countries rather than strain them. Self-reliance programs - letting refugees work, farm, and start small businesses - reduce dependence on aid while boosting local economies. Integrating refugees into national systems for education, healthcare, and employment can improve social cohesion and build long-term resilience, turning what might be a crisis into an opportunity.
Regional initiatives under the African Union and IGAD aim to harmonize asylum systems and encourage shared responsibility, making cross-border displacement more predictable and manageable. Grassroots and refugee-led initiatives fill service gaps efficiently, often reaching areas governments cannot.
Why This Matters
Forced displacement in the Horn of Africa is not just a humanitarian issue, it is a matter of regional stability, political control, and economic sense. Without funding, clear policies, and coordinated planning, host countries risk deeper social tensions, economic strain, and lost opportunities. When managed properly, refugees can contribute to the workforce, local markets, and infrastructure, turning potential burdens into drivers of growth. Treating them as partners in stability is not just altruism - it’s strategic, practical, and essential for the prosperity of the region.
Pharis Gichanga
Policy Analyst
