Will Iran’s Regime Survive 2026?

Iran’s Stolen Revolution

Iran is one of the world’s oldest civilizations. Its people have shaped centuries of science, poetry, art, and philosophy. Just fifty years ago, Iran stood out in the region - not for extremism, but for progress. Under the Shah, the country expanded education, advanced women’s rights, and embraced modernity. It wasn’t perfect but it was alive. Hopeful. Free-thinking.

Then came 1979. The Islamic Revolution overthrew the monarchy and replaced it with a theocratic regime led by Ayatollah Khomeini. In its place came a regime rooted in fear, violence, and ideological control. Four decades later, the once-vibrant society has been reduced to silence, poverty, and pain. Free speech is outlawed. Dissent is crushed. Women are policed for how they dress. Religious minorities are persecuted. Iranians now live under one of the most repressive governments on earth.

The IRGC: Iran’s Enforcers at Home and Abroad

At the heart of this regime stands the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC. More than a military force, the IRGC is the regime’s power base, a second army that protects the Ayatollahs and exports their ideology across the globe. The IRGC has funded and armed terror groups across the Middle East and beyond. Its allies include Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen. Their victims aren’t just Israelis and Americans but ordinary people in Baghdad, Beirut, and beyond.

Iran’s violence is not contained by geography. The regime has been linked to deadly bombings in Argentina, Bulgaria, and France. In 1994, a bombing in Paris was blamed on Algerian extremists. Later evidence revealed Iranian involvement tied to secret negotiations with France. This pattern repeats again and again: when you follow the trail of terror, the IRGC is never far behind.

In Yemen, Houthis forces have attacked commercial ships in the Red Sea, forcing global shipping giants to reroute. Meanwhile, Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz — a lifeline for the world’s oil supply. The regime uses these chokepoints not just to destabilize, but to blackmail.

Not Strength — Desperation

Last year, Iran did the unthinkable. For the first time, it directly attacked Israel by launching hundreds of ballistic missiles. No proxy. No deniability. Just rage and panic. It wasn’t a show of strength. It was a scream of desperation.

Inside Iran, the people are rising. Protests have shaken the country, especially since the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini beaten to death by the morality police for not covering her hair “correctly.” Her name became a rallying cry. Young Iranians, especially women, took to the streets, chanting for freedom and dignity. In one such protest, the IRGC opened fire without warning. As many as 100 were killed in a single night.

The Truth About Sanctions

The regime wants the world to believe that sanctions are to blame for Iran’s economic problems. This is a lie. Iran has suffered from double-digit inflation for nearly half a century, long before severe sanctions were ever imposed. The real cause is internal: decades of corruption, incompetence, and looting by those in power.

Some in the West argue sanctions hurt ordinary Iranians. But listen to Iranian activists: they know the cost. And they say it’s worth it, if it brings a real chance to break the regime. As many have put it: “We are already suffering. Let that suffering at least have a purpose.”

The Future Belongs to the People

Thankfully, change is already happening. In the past two years, we have seen a shift in how the West treats Iran. Canada has now officially listed the IRGC as a terrorist organization. The European Union is still debating the issue, but the pressure is mounting. There is hope that a unanimous decision will soon be reached.

This is a narrow window. The international community must act while the regime is exposed and weakened. Sanctions must be strengthened. The IRGC’s global finances must be frozen. Regime diplomats must face greater scrutiny. Every step should send a message: the world stands with the Iranian people not their oppressors.

Iran is not like other enemies of the West. Its people remember life before tyranny. They know what freedom looks like. And now, a new generation has risen: fearless, connected, and proud of their heritage. They are not begging for help. They are demanding it.

Their message is clear: "This is our country not the Ayatollahs’. And we are coming to take it back".

Heike Claudia du Toit

South African Content Writer | Linguistics Honors Candidate

Find out more