Venezuela’s Crisis
While it remains uncertain what will follow in Venezuela after the US arrested President Maduro in Caracas in the early hours of Saturday morning, his capture represents only one part of a broader shift already underway across the region. Across Latin America, voters have repeatedly rejected failed left-wing governments at the ballot box, exhausted by their inability to deliver even basic security and economic stability.
Venezuela, where Maduro’s authoritarian grip rendered democratic change impossible after multiple stolen elections and whose regime posed a direct security threat to the United States, was an outlier demanding decisive action. Other countries, from Mexico to Colombia to Cuba, whose governments have taken a light-handed approach to the drug trade within their borders, have now been officially placed on notice, and they would be wise to take it seriously.
The Latin American Realignment
This moment of American assertiveness builds on a transformation Latin Americans themselves have been driving for years. It began with Nayib Bukele’s controversial crackdown on gangs in El Salvador, which, within a few years, transformed the country from the murder capital of the world into one of the safest nations globally. It accelerated after Javier Milei’s decisive victory in Argentina’s 2023 presidential election, which saw him crush inflation, lower the poverty rate, and secure a sweeping midterm win. “The Argentine people have decided to leave behind 100 years of decadence,” Milei declared on election night.
The trend is no longer limited to these two countries. Across the continent, voters appear poised to close a chapter that could be remembered as a “lost century.” Bolivia ended two decades of socialist rule, Chile elected the furthest-right leader in its democratic history, and Ecuador, Panama, Paraguay, and Honduras have similarly ousted governments that failed to ensure security and prosperity. This continental realignment presents Washington with a historic opportunity, one it cannot afford to squander.
The Forgotten Continent
For much of the last century, the United States viewed Latin America primarily as a problem to manage rather than a civilization to engage. Migrants, refugees, and especially the drug trade became political flashpoints, catapulting figures like Donald Trump into the presidency.
This framing, however, overlooks a major opportunity: a Latin America led by competent, security- and market-oriented governments could deliver stability across a region historically plagued by chaos. For the US, the benefits are concrete: fewer refugees, fewer cartels, and fewer crises demanding American intervention. More broadly, it’s the chance to cultivate a hemisphere of stable allies rather than corrupt, unstable regimes destabilizing the continent.
Botched Inheritance
Washington’s longstanding approach to the region also fails to recognize what Latin America once was, and what it could become. In the early 1900s, Argentina’s GDP per capita exceeded that of France and Germany, and Buenos Aires ranked among the world’s wealthiest cities. Venezuela, too, was richer per capita than Spain, Portugal, and Italy as late as the 1960s. The crime and dysfunction for which the region is now infamous simply did not exist at anything like today’s scale.
Fast forward to the present, and many Latin American governments squandered that advantage. While East Asia transformed itself from poverty into an economic powerhouse in the second half of the 20th century, averaging 5.6% annual GDP per capita growth from 1960–1991, Latin America managed just 1.2%. Chronic protectionism, currency mismanagement, and fiscal recklessness became the norm across governments of all stripes. Inflation spiraled, reaching staggering levels: Argentina hit 2,600% in 1989, Brazil exceeded 1,000% annually for four years, and by the late 1980s, regional inflation approached 500%. In short, a continent that started the century richer than much of Europe approached the new millennium having largely squandered its wealth.
The Pink Tide’s Failure
It was amid this malaise that the so-called Pink Tide emerged, a wave of leftist populism promising to reverse decades of decline. Leaders blamed the United States and the IMF for their countries’ misfortunes, casting austerity and foreign influence as the root causes.
Initially, some governments saw limited success. Poverty in Brazil fell from 42% to 18% between 2003–2014, and Hugo Chavez’s early years saw targeted social spending lift many out of deep poverty. Yet the prosperity was largely illusory, fueled by a commodity bubble rather than sustainable policy. Venezuela, sitting atop the world’s largest proven oil reserves, suffered one of the most dramatic peacetime collapses in modern history: poverty exceeded 86%, hyperinflation ran rampant, and mass emigration escalated year after year. Other nations fared slightly better, but many shared similar tales. Latinos were done, and justifiably so.
A New Geopolitical Order
This pivot away from failed policies is not occurring in isolation. Relations between Washington and its traditional Western European allies have strained. Germany’s Friedrich Merz has urged Europe to strengthen itself and achieve independence from the US, while Poland’s President Karol Nawrocki emphasized his country’s readiness to defend its borders, highlighting the lack of consensus in Central Europe.
In contrast, Latin America appears ready to pivot toward Washington. A new generation of leaders actively seeks closer ties with the US precisely as parts of Europe pull away. A decade after the US Secretary of State ran for president in 2016 on the slogan “A New American Century,” the early stages of that vision may finally be taking shape, this time in the Americas.
Kyle Moran
Political Commentator
