Can Ukraine Still Win?
With Trump’s election victory shaking U.S. support for Ukraine, the war reaches a turning point. Can Europe fill the gap, or will Russia gain the upper hand?
Adam Starzynski
Nov 22, 2024 - 2:45 PM
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Ukraine at a Crossroads
Donald Trump’s election has sent shockwaves through Kyiv and European capitals, throwing U.S. support for Ukraine into doubt. If Washington turns its back, can Europe fill the gap? As Ukraine enters its fourth year of war, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
Ukraine’s Early Triumphs at Risk
When Russia invaded in 2022, the world expected Kyiv to fall in days. Instead, Ukraine stunned everyone repelling Russian forces from Kyiv, retaking Kharkiv, and liberating Kherson. By late 2022, a Ukrainian victory seemed within reach.
Then came 2023. Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia stalled against Russia’s heavily fortified lines. In early 2024, the fortress city of Avdiivka fell after a brutal four-month siege, giving Russia momentum.
In August 2023, Biden’s $24 billion aid package for Ukraine hit a wall in Congress. Political infighting left Ukraine without U.S. military support for months, forcing its troops to ration artillery while Russia pounded them with ten times the firepower.
Trump’s return raises the real possibility that U.S. support will dry up completely.
Can Europe Step Up?
Europe talks big but has so far not delivered enough. The EU pledged a million shells in 2023, only half have arrived. Decades of outsourcing have left Europe’s arms industry sluggish, and environmental policies have strangled production of crucial materials like TNT.
To make matters worse, Western allies continue to tie Ukraine’s hands. The U.S. and UK restrict Ukraine from using their weapons to strike inside Russia. Germany refuses to send Taurus missiles capable of hitting deep Russian targets. Fear of escalation is paralyzing the West, giving Russia the upper hand.
Not all of Europe is dragging its feet. The countries closest to Russia - Poland, the Baltics, Finland, Sweden - are sending up to 2% of their GDP in aid. Germany and the U.S. send just 0.4%. France? A mere 0.3%. Some Western leaders still believe Russia isn’t a direct threat.
This war is at a tipping point. The West has the means to help Ukraine, but does it have the will? Europe can no longer hide behind American power. The time for rearmament is now because if the U.S. shifts focus to China, Europe will be left to face Russia alone.
And if Ukraine loses, Europe will pay the price.
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Adam Starzynski
Journalist | Foreign Policy Analyst