Strikes on the Regime’s Street-Level Enforcers
Yesterday evening, Israeli drone strikes targeted street-level Basij militia checkpoints across Tehran for the first time. The drones hit multiple Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij military checkpoints in Tehran’s 1st, 14th, 15th and 16th districts, killing at least 10 security and military personnel stationed there. These precision strikes on the Islamic Republic’s apparatus of grassroots repression - the volunteer Basij forces that enforce control at the neighborhood level - appear designed to undermine the regime’s ability to swiftly suppress public dissent.
By systematically weakening the security forces’ command structures, supply lines and visible presence, Israeli strikes are creating conditions where mass mobilization becomes feasible for the Iranian people to reclaim the streets. The regime’s internal security mechanisms, already strained by months of pressure, are now facing direct hits on the very checkpoints that once intimidated civilians into silence. Earlier airstrikes targeting larger IRGC formations and headquarters across the country have already left the organization’s leadership uncertain about whether the personnel they summon will actually report for duty or be able to carry out missions of suppression.
Desertions and Demoralization
The strain is increasingly visible in the ranks. In Gilan Province, more than half of the IRGC repression forces are now reportedly failing to report for duty, likely due to poor conditions and the ongoing risks to their lives.
Across the country, the number of Basij militia members, IRGC units and other security personnel visible on the streets has noticeably decreased. Rising desertions and repeated attacks have left lower-ranking forces confused, exhausted and deeply demoralized.
Although commanders continue to threaten severe military penalties for desertion, the problems are worsening. Even the families of many personnel are now pressuring them to disobey orders and stay away from duty.
The Uprising That Shook the Regime
These developments come against the backdrop of the massive protests that erupted at the end of December last year and culminated in one of the most intense uprisings in Iran’s modern history. Sparked by economic collapse, repression and calls for regime change, amplified by the increasingly popular exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, demonstrations spread nationwide.
The protests peaked dramatically on January 8 and 9, when millions took to the streets in cities from Tehran to Mashhad, chanting for the fall of the Islamic Republic and for the Crown Prince’s return. The regime’s response was brutal. Security forces including the IRGC and Basij unleashed live fire against crowds, resulting in mass killings that overwhelmed hospitals and morgues. While the true toll remains unclear due to internet blackouts and hidden burials, credible estimates suggest the death toll may reach into the tens of thousands.
A Regime Losing Control
When Israel and the United States launched airstrikes against the Islamic Republic on February 28, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and large parts of the regime’s senior security leadership, leaders abroad addressed the Iranian people directly.
President Donald Trump, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi all called on Iranians to ultimately overthrow the regime. At the same time, Trump and Pahlavi urged citizens not to rush into the streets while bombardments continued, instead encouraging strikes, civil resistance and nighttime rooftop chants. Pahlavi has described the current moment as a “sensitive stage” in the final struggle, urging citizens to prepare for the moment when mass mobilization will again become possible. He has also appealed directly to security forces to defect and join the people.
Inside Iran, the regime’s grip appears increasingly fragile. Security forces are demoralized and deserting, command chains are weakening, logistics are strained and even basic supplies are reportedly lacking. Public anger is also mounting over the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as his father’s successor. Economic hardship, including soaring food prices, closed banks and shortages, is deepening the unrest.
Meanwhile, Israeli strikes have destroyed numerous regime assets, including arms bases in Karaj and Kurdistan, air bases, police headquarters and oil depots around Tehran, along with Basij and IRGC facilities across provinces such as Isfahan, Khuzestan, Lorestan and Qom. With many senior commanders eliminated or in hiding and security presence on the streets reduced to scattered patrols, the balance is shifting. Junior officers and opportunists are filling gaps in leadership, but soldiers increasingly sense that change may be imminent.
If Pahlavi’s promised signal comes while the regime’s coercive forces remain weakened, Iran’s streets could once again fill with citizens determined to bring an end to decades of theocratic rule. The path ahead remains dangerous, but the combination of external pressure and internal fracture has opened a rare window for transformation.
