Eighteen days into the largest American military operation since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the Trump administration has yet to say what victory actually looks like, with rumors beginning to circulate that they have begun to narrow their ambitions to merely doing damage to the Islamic Republic’s infrastructure rather than helping to fully topple it. 

This would be an enormous mistake. 

A wounded Islamic Republic that survives this campaign, led by a ghost supreme leader who may or may not even be conscious, is not a neutralized threat, but rather a radicalized one that would leave both the country and world in a worse position long-term.

And yet, there is an alternative, one with genuine popular support amongst Iranians inside the country and among the diaspora worldwide. That alternative, the only alternative, is Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, who on Saturday declared that his transitional government is prepared to assume power the moment the Islamic Republic falls.

Walking Away Leaves Everyone Worse Off

For decades in Tehran, the hardline Revolutionary Guard-affiliated politicians pushed hard that the only way to ensure the regime’s security was to pursue a nuclear weapons program. This came at enormous cost to the country, whose economy all but collapsed under the weight of crippling international sanctions, but they continued to pursue the program nevertheless. 

Walking away from a job half-finished in Tehran would only confirm this to them beyond any doubt: their conventional deterrents clearly were no match for American and Israeli firepower, which have achieved air superiority over much of the country on two separate occasions in the last year. Their stockpile of missiles has largely been intercepted by the air defense systems stationed throughout the region, though several have made their way through.

While their nuclear program has doubtlessly been set back by years or perhaps even a decade in this campaign, the regime would almost certainly redouble its efforts to get it started again, this time, with the knowledge of how to do it.The Iranian people would pay for this outcome most directly. While the campaign has struck Basij paramilitary bases and police headquarters across Tehran, which has accomplished genuine progress at degrading the regime’s domestic repression machinery, this is only a temporary setback if the regime is allowed to remain.

It’s already clear that the Islamic Republic is leaning hard into fear and reprisal tactics. Last week, Iran’s Police Chief Ahmadreza Radan warned that his forces would treat anyone who takes to the streets as “enemies,” and that they would be met by forces with “their fingers on the trigger.” Given the brutality of January’s crackdown, these threats should be taken seriously. The surrounding Arab states see this threat perhaps most clearly. Gulf capitals that have spent over two weeks absorbing a seemingly never-ending barrage of Iranian missiles and drones understand that a wounded Islamic Republic left standing is perhaps the most dangerous outcome imaginable. As Ebtesam al-Ketbi, president of the Emirates Policy Center, put it: “If America leaves the war now without achieving victory, it will be like abandoning an injured lion… Iran will remain a threat to the region, capable of striking again.”

No Moderate Is Coming From Within

The administration’s reluctance to commit to a clear political endgame appears to rest on the assumption that Iran could ostensibly end up transitioning to new leadership the way Venezuela did after its former president, Nicolas Maduro, was arrested back in January. This is a fundamentally flawed idea: Iran is not a personalist dictatorship that collapses when one man at the top is removed, as has been made clear by the fact that the Guards remain largely in control despite Ali Khamenei having been eliminated over two weeks ago.

His successor, who happens to be his son Mojtaba Khamenei, hasn’t even been seen since the war broke out, and reports are indicating that he might not even be conscious. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth described Mojtaba as “wounded and likely disfigured,” and the only thing we’ve heard from him that has surfaced thus far was a written statement read out by a state TV anchor over a still photograph.

But regardless of when he resurfaces, Mojtaba’s election marked a significant shift in the direction of rule by the Guards. He is known to be much more of a hardliner than his father was, and spent years assisting in running the Basij militia’s economic and intelligence operations.It should also be noted that these hardline stances were before the strikes that took out both his father and wife, which aren’t exactly likely to inspire him to compromise with the US.

Pahlavi Only Alternative

The man that the administration has been reluctant to embrace is none other than Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, son of the last Shah of Iran who fled in the midst of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. 

Trump may have dismissed him as someone who “hasn’t been there for many years,” but Iranians themselves are far more open to him, he has led every GAMAAN survey they’ve been able to conduct within the country before the recent blackout, and protests both inside and outside of Iran have prominently featured the old Imperial Lion and Sun flag along with chants of “Javid Shah!,” or “long live the Shah” in Farsi.

He is boosted both through the fact that many Iranians look back at his father’s time in power fondly, as the quality of living then was much higher than it has been for much of the Islamic Republic’s existence, and through a complete lack of alternatives. The regime has spent enormous capital and effort to suppress any form of organized opposition domestically, and to their credit, it’s paid off - there is no one figure, party, or institution that would be able to step into the void should the current regime fall other than Pahlavi.

He also brings something to the table that should get significantly more attention in Western capitals: the Iran Prosperity Project, a nearly 200-page blueprint for the first 180 days as a transitional government, compiled in coordination with dozens of Iranian experts, which covers everything from security to economic stabilization to military restructuring and beyond.It’s also a clear transition to a genuinely democratic Iran, in which there would be a national referendum on whether the country should become a constitutional monarchy or a republic, with both options resulting in free elections.

His March 14th declaration that this transitional system is ready to assume governance the moment the Islamic Republic falls is arguably the most significant development in the Iranian opposition's history - a credible, organized alternative government with a concrete plan to stabilize the country. The question is no longer if Pahlavi is ready, but if Washington will recognize it before the window closes.

The Clock is Running

Persian New Year, or Nowruz, falls this year on March 20th, historically a massive national celebration that has long served as a flashpoint for anti-regime unrest, and this year it very well may be the opportunity that many have been waiting for. The holiday is over 3,000 years old, and rooted in the pre-Islamic Persian culture that the theocratic regime has spent nearly half a century trying to suppress, making this a unique opportunity to protest.

The campaign leading up to this has not been subtle either, and is almost certainly aimed at attempting to destroy the regime’s internal repression capabilities as much as possible in the lead-up to it. Basij paramilitary bases across Tehran and beyond have been struck repeatedly recently, senior commanders tied to anti-riot operations have been wiped out, and lower-level members of the group have been increasingly targeted in strikes. Pahlavi himself has been building towards this moment, signaling that the call to the streets has not yet come, but that it is close.

Only time will tell whether this week’s Nowruz brings about renewed, widespread protests, but either way, the broader reality remains unchanged. Leaving this regime in place, especially in this weakened position, would undermine everything that the Trump administration has set out to achieve thus far, as the president himself noted last week, we have to get the job done right this time, or else we're just going to have to go back in later and do this all over again.